But I’m not coming into this campaign with my mind made up on every issue – I’m in it to learn as well as win. Consequently, I’m meeting with citizens every week and their views do affect my thinking. So don’t be surprised if you see some changes in my thoughts over the course of the campaign.

But let’s start with the two issues citizens are most concerned about. We have some idea what these are because the county pays for a statistically sound citizen survey each year. Here are some of results taken directly from the report -- which you can read online at http://www.scgov.net/Administration/citizensurvey2007.asp

“For the first time in six years, taxes rank first in the list of “most important
issues facing Sarasota County. In the 2007 Citizen Opinion Survey, the four most frequently cited issues (in descending order) are:
Taxes—21.4%;
Population Growth/New Development—20.8%;
Traffic/Transportation—13.8%; and
Affordable Housing—7.4%. 
The tax issue’s preeminence parallels patterns evident throughout the state. 
The rank ordering of issues shifted somewhat between 2006 and 2007. 
Taxes moved up from third to the top-ranked issue. Population growth dropped from first to second-most mentioned. Traffic/Transportation remained the third most cited while Affordable Housing dropped from second to fourth.
The most dramatic changes between 2006 and 2007 were the increases in the proportion of respondents identifying Taxes (9% to 21%) and
Traffic/Transportation (9% to 14%) and the sharp decline in the percent citing
Affordable Housing (16% to 7%).  
There were only marginal increases in the percent identifying Water,
Government Officials, Health Care, Homelessness, Drugs/Substance Abuse, Infrastructure and the Environment as the top issue. Conversely, there were small dips in the proportion citing Population Growth/New Development,
Economy/Jobs, Public Schools and Other issues.”
 

TAXES

Quick take: Our property taxes are out of whack, and they will remain out of whack regardless of the vote on January 29th.

We have a very messed up tax situation at the moment. The ad valorem (property) tax system is unfair. Theoretically in a system actually based on property value, identical homes would pay identical taxes, but that hasn’t been true for years. And our sales tax system is full of exemptions and loopholes.

The Florida Legislature, stampeding to shore up declining revenues and panicked that people might actually prefer some other states, has embarked on a careening path that is making matters worse. Two examples:
        
• Why on Earth would we want to introduce fixed percentages into the state constitution? If we want limits on taxes (or revenue, or government spending) shouldn’t those limits somehow be indexed to the general state of the economy?

• The 60% threshold for passing constitutional amendments has created a situation (probably unintended) in which ballot measure proposers have moved from having to appeal to voters to having to pander to voters. Unfortunately the electorate is not the same as the citizenry and a lot of nonvoters or sometimes voters are paying property taxes. The result is a proposal that is skewed towards homesteaded voters.

The tragedy is that growth could have paid for itself. Florida started its boom with inducements, loss leaders and come-ons that succeeded in creating strong economic growth. But once the state’s popularity was assured we should have gradually increased the ticket price, but we didn’t and now our failure to make sure Florida’s natural amenities and built systems were adequately protected and funded has resulted in some aspects of the state looking a little frayed. People are noticing. Needs are increasing faster than wages and things are definitely out of kilter.

I’m not philosophically opposed to a true ad valorem property tax system. One in which the tax is based solely on the value of the property and not who you are or how long you have lived there or whether you live there. But at this point it is difficult to see how we could work our way back to such a situation. Consequently we do need to look at other revenue streams – such as closing sales tax loopholes and taxing internet sales.

I wish we could thrash this tax mess out at the local level without the high degree of meddling from Tallahassee. But that isn’t happening. As I have said, the only thing worse than an unfair and inequitable tax system is one that is unfair, inequitable and unpredictable. Tallahassee has amplified the unpredictability, making it difficult for property owners and government alike. It is easy for me to understand why taxes now outpoll other matters as the top citizen concern.

I’ll have more to say about this after January 29th, when we know more about what the rest of Florida’s citizen’s think and where the state seems to be headed. (Doesn’t it seem odd that our local tax approach will be governed by the opinions of citizens in Miami, Orlando and elsewhere?)

POPULATION GROWTH / NEW DEVELOPMENT

Quick take: Forces outside of County control have brought growth nearly to a standstill. Now is the time to take advantage of Sarasota’s growing reputation for sustainability to broaden our economic base, reducing our prior dependence on new residences and sprawl to make sure new population growth is smart growth that improves our county.

Many citizens are disheartened by how fast our county and region have been growing in terms of population and new development. We see places we took for granted leveled, trees pushed aside over to widen roads and we experience our quality of life slipping away.

I feel it too, and find myself hearing the lyrics of “Florida” , written by J.J. Cale of the band Mofro: 

Florida I know your out there hiding from me 
You get harder and harder to find
Every day she keeps slipping away
Florida please don’t fade on me now

Years ago we used to blame snowbirds when we were stuck in traffic between Thanksgiving and Easter, but now people are tempted to attribute secondary effects such as traffic and longer lines to new residents. One fifth of all the Sarasotans polled thought population growth and new development was the most important issue facing Sarasota County.

But something has happened in the last year or so. Sarasota (and most of Florida and much of the US) has experienced a “perfect storm” that has dramatically reduced new development. What are the factors leading to this? I use the mnemonic device MIST
To help me remember four of the biggest:

• Mortgages: the nationwide subprime mortgage crisis with its foreclosures and vacant unsold homes weakening both our property values and our neighborhoods,
• Insurance: repeated insurance premium increases coupled with dropped policies and reduced coverage,
• Speculation that pumped up assessed values, and consequently land values and then
• Taxes: aggravated by Tallahassee meddling that has generated more confusion and uncertainty than solutions

And, like a Ginsu knife promotion: “Wait, there’s more!”

• Lingering hurricane angst that raises anxiety, not to mention insurance, and questions about how stormworthy are homes actually are,

• The state's "long term down turn", now projected to be at least a billion dollars short for next year,

• Gas prices playing tag with $3.00 a gallon and oil at $100 a barrel – not helpful in a sprawling county that was laid out when petroleum cost one third or less of current prices.

On recent survey showed 20% of Floridians have been thinking about leaving the state, and locally we’ve experienced a drop from 14,000 residential units starts per year in Sarasota-Manatee at the peak to about 3,000 now.

As a result we've moved a long way in the slow growth direction. Slow growth advocates may be toasting their good fortune, but the county has come pretty close to going cold turkey and the withdrawal is leaving us with the economic equivalent of craving, D.Ts, anxiety, and depression.  The fact is this relatively rapid turnabout has a distinct, debilitating negative side that affects us all.

Those unsold and vacant homes in your neighborhood are not signs of health. Some neighborhoods have abandoned and half-finished homes. The county is cutting services. You probably know people who have taken a big cut in income or experienced layoffs. Unemployment jumped 58% in the first ten months of last year. Demands on social service are rising just as revenue to address such needs declines. Divorces and domestic violence are increasing. Local social service agencies estimate they will need over $800,000 a month more to meet the demand.

Sarasota needs a vibrant economy in order to support our quality of life. Overdependence on homebuilding and new home sales resulted in significant economic contraction once we plunged into the MIST.

Now that we have added Supermajority provisions for comprehensive plan changes I would argue that instead spending time and energy in an effort to further hammer new residential homebuilding (already on the ropes), we should take a positive approach and focus on strengthening our local economy, which is also on the ropes. Let’s take this opportunity to explore more diversified and sustainable forms of growth (arts, education, small business entrepreneurs, etc.) that will leave us with a vibrant and more diversified economy.